Ryanair, the Irish budget airline, is preparing to cut millions of seats and abandon multiple routes in 2026 because the European political and regulatory environment is making the low-cost model increasingly difficult to sustain.
In 1985, inspired by Southwest Airlines, the first major low-cost airline in the world, and following the liberalization of European airspace, Ryanair brought the low-cost model to scale in Europe, revolutionizing air travel across the continent. It did so through an efficiency-driven model that enabled the sale of extremely low-cost tickets in a market previously dominated by expensive legacy carriers.
Flying ceased to be a luxury and became a real possibility for ordinary citizens. The success of Ryanair’s model created competition and triggered a domino effect: certain European routes saw real price reductions of between 50% and 70%. Even traditional airlines were forced to adapt, introducing “light” fares and adjusting their pricing structures.
Today, low-cost airlines are responsible for carrying more than 500 to 600 million passengers per year in Europe.
However, 41 years later, Ryanair is preparing to cut around 3 million seats, corresponding to an estimated 75 to 90 routes across Europe. A combination of aggressive green ideology from the European Union and state-protected airport monopolies lies at the root of this decision.
The EU Emissions Trading System, or ETS, is the European Union’s carbon market, officially designed to combat climate change.
The EU sets a maximum cap on CO2 emissions that decreases every year, regardless of growth in air traffic. Airlines are required to purchase allowances for every ton of CO2 they emit.
In other words, while the supply of allowances decreases, demand tends to increase with the growth of aviation. This deliberately creates artificial scarcity, driving up the price of carbon, increasing costs for airlines, and ultimately harming consumers.
In March 2026, the CEOs of major European carriers issued a joint statement warning that the European Union and its passengers cannot continue to absorb the growing regulatory and cost burden. They noted that annual regulatory costs in European aviation have tripled since 2014 and are expected to reach €27.6 billion by 2030, with ETS alone accounting for around €5 billion.
Wizz Air, a Hungarian low-cost airline, also warned that the combination of ETS and bureaucracy risks creating a “decomposing economy” in Europe, undermining economic growth and the employment gains generated by low-cost aviation over the past three decades.
To make matters worse, state-protected airport monopolies compound the problem. In Spain, Aena, with 51% state ownership, controls nearly all major airports. In Portugal, ANA (Aeroportos de Portugal) benefits from a full monopoly granted by the state until 2062.
In Spain, the government maintains majority control over Aena and has repeatedly blocked meaningful competition, even ignoring recommendations from its own competition authority. In Portugal, the state privatized ANA in 2013 but granted it a 50-year legal monopoly over all mainland and island airports, a decision also criticized by the Portuguese Court of Auditors.
Without competitive pressure, these entities raise airport fees year after year, often well above inflation, while offering little to no incentives for low-cost airlines to maintain or expand regional and peripheral routes.
A worrying example of the consequences of this policy can be seen in the Azores. Located in the middle of the Atlantic, and only partially liberalized in 2015, the region had long depended on public carriers TAP Air Portugal and SATA (Sociedade Açoreana de Transportes Aéreos). Ryanair became an important driver of tourism growth, accounting for around 10% of overnight stays. However, in March 2026, the airline abandoned the six routes it operated.
Business leaders and the Ponta Delgada Chamber of Commerce warn that this represents the loss of a key economic engine, with an estimated impact of €140 to €160 million per year and a potential reduction of 1.5% to 1.7% of regional GDP.
It is interesting to note, however, that in the face of this hostile environment, Ryanair is shifting its aircraft to more aviation-friendly countries such as Italy, Greece, Hungary, and Morocco. These destinations have adopted more liberal policies: they have reduced or eliminated aviation taxes, offered incentives to regional airports, and avoided the creation of excessive monopolies.
This reallocation demonstrates that state intervention, disguised as unrealistic environmental virtue, cannot override economic reality, and its consequences are not confined to the regulated sector.
Liberalize the skies.
