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Here’s a letter to a long-time reader of my blog.
Mr. W__:
Thanks for your email.
You ask what you can tell your “pro-tariff Trump supporting friend” who “contends that tariffs in the 80s to protect Harley-Davidson worked.”
You can ask your friend to support his contention by offering evidence. And the evidence that he must offer is not that those tariffs helped Harley-Davidson; no one doubts that particular producers can reap net benefits when government grants those producers some measure of monopoly power by restricting consumers’ options to shop elsewhere. The evidence your friend must offer is that net benefits were reaped by Americans as a whole. As this 1984 study by my GMU Econ colleague Dan Klein suggests, your friend will have difficulty finding and offering such evidence.
Further, even if (contrary to fact) those motorcycle tariffs somehow managed to improve the American economy overall, the economic case for free trade doesn’t require that every instance of protectionism fails to help the economy. Rather, the economic case for free trade rests on the recognition that protectionism as a general rule will damage the economy – and that politicians are neither sufficiently motivated nor informed to identify the rare instances when protectionism might ‘work.’
I’ve always liked this observation by the late economist Harry Johnson: “To the primitive mind, one case of magic’s working (or seeming to work) is sufficiently impressive to confirm faith in magic against a long series of experienced failures.”* Protectionism’s history is a long series of experienced failures.
While I can’t say about your friend, I can say that most protectionists – on matters of trade policy – have primitive minds.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
* Harry G. Johnson, “Mercantilism: Past, Present, and Future” (1973), as reprinted in Johnson, On Economics and Society (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1975), page 274.
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