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This is from The Free Press, and the instructions were to fess up to a mistake made in a piece for The Free Press (not elsewhere). Here is mine:
On October 26 I wrote about President Trump’s $20 billion support package for Argentinian president Javier Milei. At the time I, along with many other economists, thought the bailout was a costly mistake, but so far the decision has been vindicated.
The backstory is that Milei was trying to peg the Argentinian peso artificially high. Such policies usually do not work, even with strong backing from the International Monetary Fund, or in this case the U.S. It felt like the U.S. would lose a lot of money supporting a doomed economic policy. After all, Milton Friedman taught us long ago that floating exchange rates, set by market forces, usually are best.
But Milei stuck to his guns with the peg, an unusual move for a libertarian-oriented reformer, and Trump decided to back him. What happened in the “market test of strength” is that Milei and Trump won. The peg held, and the U.S. government seems not to have suffered any losses from this policy. By December, Argentina announced that it would be softening its currency peg and moving closer to a floating-rate system, as most economists recommend.
Why were the economists—including me—wrong? Maybe we were right ex ante, and Milei and Trump got lucky ex post. An alternative view is that the political symbolism of holding the peg was more important than the economics of the decision, and Milei had insight the economists did not.
When you are not sure why you were wrong, or how wrong you were, that is all the more reason to stay humble.
There are many other answers at the link.
The post “What we got wrong this year” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Starmer’s commitment to universal human rights – which necessarily implies open borders – is now a threat to national security and, paradoxically, the human rights of the British people. By welcoming el-Fattah, a virulent anti-Semite, Starmer has violated the right of our Jewish community to feel secure in their own land. His refusal to police the pro-Palestinian, anti-Semitic hate marchers since October 2023 has also trampled on the security of British Jews and infringed upon their liberty – Central London has become a no-go zone.
… is from page 259 of Vol. 1 of the 1980 Knopf edition of Alexis de Tocqueville’s 1835 Democracy in America [footnote deleted]:
If it be admitted that a man possessing absolute power may misuse that power by wronging his adversaries, why should not a majority be liable to the same reproach? Men do not change their characters by uniting with one another; nor does their patience in the presence of obstacles increase with their strength. For my own part, I cannot believe it; the power to do everything, which I should refuse to one of my equals, I will never grant to any number of them.
The post Quotation of the Day… appeared first on Cafe Hayek.